[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231631
SWODY1
SPC AC 231630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MN WI AND UPPER MI...

...CAROLINAS...
BROAD TROUGH ERN U.S. GRADUALLY FILLS AS S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY OH
VALLEY CONTINUES ENEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z MON.  FRONTAL ZONE
HAS SHIFTED SEWD EXTENDING FROM SRN VA ACROSS NRN GULF STATES TO
CENTRAL TX.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG AND SOME DISTANCE IN
ADVANCE OF FRONT...HOWEVER ERN NC PARTICULARLY WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT
UP WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER.

WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND TEMPERATURES BY MID AFTERNOON
UPPER 80S...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO 2000 J/KG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  WITH S/WV PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 20-30KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT.  INITIATION
WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT AND IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE STRONGEST HEATING.  WITH MARGINAL SHEAR AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GENERALLY AROUND 6C/KM WET DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE LIMIT OF SEVERE THREAT FROM MID AFTERNOON
TIL AROUND SUNSET.

...MN WI AND UPPER MI...
S/WV TROUGH NOTED ON WV IMAGERY DROPPING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
MANITOBA TOWARD WRN ONTARIO.  CURRENT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS/PCPN
 MN ARROWHEAD AHEAD OF TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN MN.  VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF S/WV
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SRN MANITOBA AND DROP SEWD DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO NRN MN AND EVENTUALLY NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI. 
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD RAISE MLCAPES TO
NEAR 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON.  HAVE EXTENDED EARLIER SLIGHT RISK
WWD ACROSS NRN MN WHERE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES COULD SET UP ON EDGE OF
CURRENT BOUNDARY WATERS PCPN.  WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SHORT LINES/BOWS COULD EVOLVE OUT OF STORMS MOVING INTO NRN
MN FOR A GREATER WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

...WRN U.S...
VERY LARGE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO CONTROL WEATHER WRN U.S. 
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE HIGH AND WITH
THE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING...CONTINUES THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
DIURNAL SEVERE STORMS. THE THREAT WILL BE MODULATED WHERE FULL
HEATING CAN OCCUR AND VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN. LARGE AREAS OF MID
CLOUDINESS WHILE EXPECTED TO THIN WITH TIME...WILL LIMIT HEATING IN
SOME REGIONS.  HAVE NOT TRIED TO PINPOINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA WHERE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH BASED DOWNBURSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL COULD OCCUR.
THUS THE LARGE AREA OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 07/23/2006