[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110556
SWODY1
SPC AC 110554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SWD ACROSS KS...MO AND IL DURING THE DAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. THE HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING ENEWD FROM THE TX PANHANDLE ACROSS OK
INTO SCNTRL MO AND CNTRL IL. AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY SHOW MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE MULTICELL LINES AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH
LINE SEGMENTS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME
ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST
LIKELY FROM CNTRL IL EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NRN OK WHERE
MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY COLDER THAN AREAS TO
THE SOUTHWEST.

...NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WRN NY AND CNTRL PA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD INTO
NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON IN NEW ENGLAND SHOW MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM SRN MAINE SWD TO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-TROUGH MAY HAMPER DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT TODAY. AS A
RESULT...ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 07/11/2006