[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 310521
SWODY1
SPC AC 310519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CRE 35 NW ILM
25 NNW RIC 35 WSW DOV 45 E ACY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND BECOME
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NC
COAST AT 12Z TODAY...WITH THIS LOW UNDERGOING VERY STRONG DEEPENING
AS IT MOVES NEWD TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA.  WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT STRONG ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT N TO NW OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING.  ANY ONSHORE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE
BY 18Z AS STRONG FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM SHIFTS ENEWD.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY REACHING WRN TX LATE TONIGHT.  DESPITE COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THIS SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO COLD TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

..PETERS.. 01/31/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM