[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250048
SWODY1
SPC AC 250047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW TUS 30 WNW GBN
35 NNE BLH 25 WSW IGM 50 WSW GCN 35 E INW 65 WNW TCS 35 S DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ/NM...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOW 150 SSW SAN
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT NEWD. PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO
FAR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHERE
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL /I.E. -24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB/ IS CONTRIBUTING
TO SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. 
ALSO...TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE ERN GULF OF CA COAST INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NRN MEXICO WHERE A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIR MASS
IS BEING OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL.

00Z TUS SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LITTLE MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED
FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS SRN AZ OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH AIR MASS
REMAINING QUITE DRY BELOW 500 MB.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW LIFTING
NEWD...FURTHER MOISTENING/SATURATION WILL OCCUR...AND GIVEN THE
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE...
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 25/06Z.  

WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN VICINITY OF LOW CENTER...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH MOIST PLUME WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY NWWD AHEAD OF
SYSTEM.

...PA/WV/NRN VA AND MD...

A CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED TSTMS INITIATING OVER CNTRL OH EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO.  OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
CYCLONIC...100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THIS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...PRIOR TO DISSIPATION AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND LAPSE
RATES WEAKEN.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION QUICK CESSATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY...NO GENERAL THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.

..MEAD.. 01/25/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM