[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240504
SWODY1
SPC AC 240502

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 20 SSW GBN
45 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 10 SSE EED 35 NNW IGM 65 W GCN 10 NE GCN 25 NNE
INW 50 S DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE
DAY ONE PERIOD.  BREAKDOWN OF ERN PACIFIC/WRN U.S. AND CANADA BLOCK
WILL OCCUR AS HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD AND CUTOFF LOW /
CURRENTLY OFF THE SRN CA COAST / BEGINS LIFTING NEWD IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEAR 150W/40N. IN THE E...LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD.

...AZ/NM...

24/00Z NKX/TUS SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE DRY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING NECESSARY FOR ANY
THREAT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY MOISTENING WILL OCCUR VIA ADVECTION OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. ABOVE 700 MB/ FROM S AND SW OF MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OFF THE ERN PACIFIC.

WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS FEED OF MOISTURE TO BECOME COINCIDENT WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE TONIGHT / AFTER 25/06Z / AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACTS ON THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..MEAD.. 01/24/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM