[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231957
SWODY1
SPC AC 231956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY
...CONT... 40 SW BVE GPT SEM RMG HKY GSO 45 E ORF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO OK AND NM...AND REX
FORMATION OVER PACIFIC COAST.  AT SFC...WAVY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS
FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL GA AS WARM
FRONT...WITH RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE AIR MASS OF OROGRAPHIC DAMMING
EVIDENT TO ITS N. FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER CENTRAL AL IS DIFFUSE AND
WILL REMAIN SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY ENEWD ALONG NWD-DRIFTING
PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE.  SECOND/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...AL AND SRN
MS...MERGING WITH WRN PORTIONS OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...SERN CONUS...
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN SMALL BANDS AND CLUSTERS ANTICIPATED.  AS
BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC SUPPORT WEAKENS...CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL DECLINE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH SO FAR N AND W OF AREA...LACK OF 
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC ASCENT INDICATES ANY SIGNIFICANT STEEPENING
OF THESE LAPSE RATES MUST ARISE FROM BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATIC
PROCESSES...WHICH ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THIS REGION.  WITH
HEATING INTO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG AND S OF SFC WARM FRONT - AND DEW
POINTS HOLDING IN MID/UPPER 60S AS MOIST ADVECTION MIXING LARGELY
COUNTERBALANCE ONE ANOTHER...MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH 0-6 KM LAYER SHEARS RANGING FROM AROUND 40-55 KT...HIGHEST
ALONG WARM FRONT.  HOWEVER...VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE OBSERVED
WEAKNESS IN LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND ASSOCIATED LIMITING OF HODOGRAPH
SIZE IN BOUNDARY LAYER.

SFC ISALLOBARIC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS FROM SRN GA
AND NRN FL NEWD...WEIGHTED TOWARD AREA N OF WARM FRONT AND FCST TO
SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE VEERING OF WARM
SECTOR WINDS AND CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN BOTH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
IN CONVERGENCE.  THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY FOR REMAINDER AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINAL
PROBABILITIES CONCENTRATED MAINLY NEAR WARM FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED.  A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTS
NEAR SEVERE LIMITS ...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO
MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK UPGRADE ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM