[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 220035
SWODY1
SPC AC 220034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E BRO 35 SW HDO 60
WSW JCT 25 SW SJT 25 NE ABI 35 WSW GYI 35 SW DEQ 30 NE ELD 45 WSW
CBM 35 N MGM 25 SSE AUO 10 NNE MAI 40 WSW PFN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER AZ/WRN NM INTO
NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY
SUNDAY MORNING.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE S TX COAST NEWD
THROUGH SERN LA INTO CNTRL GA WILL RETREAT NWD OVERNIGHT TO VICINITY
OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST...NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS/AL BY
22/12Z.

00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER MOIST AIR
MASS ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION.  STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ
OVERNIGHT WILL ENHANCE NWD TRANSPORT OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WELL INLAND.  A CONCURRENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION WILL SUPPORT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INITIALLY ACROSS SRN/CNTRL TX AND EVENTUALLY EWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.

A STORM EARLIER OVER THE MIDDLE TX COAST PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL AND
SOME THREAT FOR SIMILAR OCCURRENCES WILL EXIST WITH AXIS OF
STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND NO HAIL
PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED.

..MEAD.. 01/22/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM