[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191303
SWODY1
SPC AC 191302

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ALS 30 NNE 4SL
70 WNW GUP 35 ENE GCN 10 SSW BCE 55 NW 4HV 45 ENE PUC 35 WSW CAG 35
NW 4FC 35 NW COS 20 ESE ALS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR WLYS ACROSS THE WRN GRT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD TO
THE SRN ROCKIES BY EVENING.  THIS IMPULSE WILL WEAKLY PHASE WITH THE
NRN STREAM AS IT BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
BY 12Z FRI.  MEANWHILE...THE NEXT IMPULSE WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE
WA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
ELKO NV SOUNDING SAMPLED AROUND MINUS 32 DEGREE C H5 TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THE HEART OF THE GREAT BASIN IMPULSE THIS MORNING.  THESE
STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE N OF THE
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC JET AXIS THIS AFTN. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING.  HIGHEST TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WLY
UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

...WA COAST...
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL ARRIVE ONSHORE AFT
06Z ACROSS WRN WA WITH GRADUAL COOLING PROFILES EXPECTED VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  IT APPEARS THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL LAG
OFFSHORE OR NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD...LESSENING THE RISK FOR TSTMS FOR THE COASTAL AREA.

..RACY.. 01/19/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM