[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151252
SWODY1
SPC AC 151251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 20 W DPG 35
NNW WEY 15 E SHR 25 WNW LAR 20 NW PUB 20 SE LVS 45 SE GNT 40 NNE SAD
20 NE BLH 55 NNE DAG 60 NW P38.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM.  WRN
U.S. TROUGH SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN AS ORE IMPULSE DROPS SE ACROSS THE
GRT BASIN AND LEAD DISTURBANCE DAMPENS OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS.  AT LWR
LEVELS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL U.S.
SHOULD SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT SE INTO THE LWR MO VLY/CNTRL
PLNS.

...GRT BASIN/4 CORNERS/CNTRL RCKYS...
SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GRT BASIN AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING ORE TROUGH...WHERE
HEATING BENEATH COLD POOL /-28 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD YIELD
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SPOTS. 
THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT REACH NRN AZ UNTIL TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD DOMINATE IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE 4 CORNERS
REGION.  THE LATER DISTURBANCE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DIURNAL STORMS IN WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF CO/WY LATER TODAY.

...E TX/LWR MS AND TN VLYS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD N ACROSS E TX AND THE LWR MS
VLY THIS PERIOD AS LOW SETTLES SE INTO NEB/MO. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL CAP THE MOISTURE PLUME...PRECLUDING TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  SOME
ELEVATED /MID LEVEL/ CONVECTION MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
TN VLY AS PACIFIC MOISTURE IS LIFTED ALONG DEVELOPING ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
PRODUCE THUNDER.

..CORFIDI.. 01/15/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM