[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111928
SWODY1
SPC AC 111927

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PNS MCN 30 SE
AHN AND 20 WNW AVL 15 W BLF 10 NW CRW HLG 15 WNW ERI ...CONT... 30
NW ART ALB 50 E PSM ...CONT... 30 E SGJ 65 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 55 NNE PDX
25 S PDX 25 NNW EUG 30 W ONP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EASTERN STATES...
CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE...AND
TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY
MERGE BACK INTO PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...EXTENDING ACROSS
QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LINGERING TROUGHING IN SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY LAG A BIT...BUT STILL
PROGRESS OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12/12Z.

AHEAD OF TROUGH AXES...EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WARM
LOWER/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. 
LIMITED MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
MINIMIZING SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ON TAIL END OF
POLAR TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WHERE NEAR
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH HAIL/WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS STRONGER ASCENT
AHEAD OF WEAKENING LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
HOWEVER...AS THIS FORCING SPREADS ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ABOVE
SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION... FROM COASTAL NEW JERSEY THROUGH LONG
ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
LINGERING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS
AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM PATTERN SUPPORTS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST.

..KERR.. 01/11/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM