[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101931
SWODY1
SPC AC 101930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM
50 NNW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S LCH 30 NNE ESF
55 WSW MEM POF 30 W FAM 25 ENE COU 40 SSE IRK 35 W MLI MKE MKG FNT
CAK PKB 35 ESE JKL RMG 20 SSE AUO 40 SSW AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
AT THE MOMENT...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OZARKS IS GENERALLY CUT-OFF
FROM THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...AT LEAST TEMPORARY
PHASING OF A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM
IS ONGOING...AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
 THIS...AND THE EVENTUAL INCREASING INFLUENCE OF AN UPSTREAM
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK...IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT THE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION OF A DEEPENING...BUT STILL RELATIVELY
WEAK...SURFACE LOW OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SPORADIC WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG FORCING NORTHEAST OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST HAS INHIBITED MORE
SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW...A NARROW TONGUE OF MOISTURE EXISTS AHEAD
OF FRONT.  THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY 55F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS AND...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL
ADVECTION...IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH RISK OF SMALL HAIL/
GUSTY WINDS.  ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE
CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT SEEMS
LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST.

...EASTERN GULF COAST...
OTHERWISE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING.  FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...THE BULK OF WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. HOWEVER...
THE FAR NORTHERN FLANK OF ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

..KERR.. 01/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM