[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 100529
SWODY1
SPC AC 100527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM
50 NNW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE CRP 20 SSE GGG
15 N TXK 15 E FSM GMJ 50 NNE JLN 20 E SZL 20 SW UIN 15 NNE SPI DNV
10 W MIE 35 ESE DAY 40 NW HTS 10 E LOZ 25 SW CHA 20 SSW SEM 30 SSE
PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL
BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE
TUE NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS AR TUE MORNING...THEN DEVELOP NEWD TO
NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z WED.  AS A RESULT...THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT
ACROSS THE TN VLY WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE MIDWEST WHILE A COLD FRONT
TRAILING THE LOW SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE TN VLY AND THE DEEP S THROUGH
EARLY WED.  

...MID-SOUTH/TN VLY...
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW.  QUALITY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TEMPERED BY
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER PARCELS WHOSE SOURCE REGION RESIDES BENEATH A
SERN STATES SURFACE ANTICYCLONE.  NONETHELESS...STRONG DCVA AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX EARLY
TUE THEN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VLY TUE AFTN/EVE.  THIS ENHANCED
UVV WILL INTERCEPT NRN EXTENTS OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A
TSTM THREAT.  

THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS TSTMS ONGOING EARLY ON TUE ACROSS THE OZARKS
SWD INTO ERN TX...A COUPLE OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.  AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE
UNSTABLE TUE AFTN/EVE...TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY NEAR THE MS RVR FROM THE
BOOTHEEL OF MO SWD INTO THE MS DELTA AS SRN EXTENTS OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS/COLD FRONT SHIFT ENEWD.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE TN/LWR OH VLYS LATER IN THE EVENING.  GIVEN BACKING MEAN LAYER
FLOW...TSTMS WILL MAINLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLD TSTMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST.  BUT...THE
ANTICIPATED WEAK THERMAL BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
TSTMS.

..RACY.. 01/10/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM