[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060548
SWODY1
SPC AC 060546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N CLM 10 SSW OLM
15 SSE EUG 35 E 4BK 60 SW UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAY-1 WITH
MEAN TROUGH IN ERN CONUS AND RIDGE FROM SRN CA THROUGH CANADIAN
ROCKIES.  COLD FRONT NOW OVER NRN FL IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SEWD
THROUGH REMAINDER PENINSULA BEFORE 6/18Z.  AIRMASS OVER GREAT
MAJORITY OF CONUS WILL BE TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS...WITH
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR-COASTAL PACIFIC NW. NRN PORTION OF
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA AND ORE -- IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ASHORE AROUND 7/00Z...WITH SRN PORTION MOVING
INLAND NRN CA AFTER DARK.

...WRN PORTIONS WA/ORE...
MRGL PROBABILITIES FOR CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK...WITH TSTM
EVENTS BEING ISOLATED AND EPISODIC THROUGH MIDDLE-LATE PERIOD.
UNLIKE SPECTRAL/NGM LI...ETA LI GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER THIS AREA...HOWEVER ANIMATIONS OF BOTH
ETA AND ETA-KF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS RESULT IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE
MODELED BUOYANT LAYERS AND HOW THEY EVOLVE.  MOST UNSTABLE LIFTED
PARCELS BETWEEN ABOUT 18-22Z ARE ROOTED AROUND 650 MB AND GENERATE
MRGL MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG WITH LI AROUND -1...BUT THIS IS NOT
EVIDENT IN STANDARD PLANAR CAPE/LI GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF ITS MORE
STABLE LOW-LEVEL PARCEL SELECTION.  THEN AS LOWER-MIDLEVEL ASCENT
PASSES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AROUND 7/00Z. CONVECTIVE PARCEL BASES DROP
QUICKLY TO AROUND 900 MB...WITH TOPS BELOW 500 MB SAMPLING LEVEL FOR
LI FIELDS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD SHIFT SWD THROUGH EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILES GENERATING WEAK CAPE.

..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM