[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 060054
SWODY1
SPC AC 060053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS
CONUS...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGE FROM SRN CA THROUGH CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND MEAN TROUGH FROM ERN HUDSON BAY/WRN QUE SSWWD ACROSS GULF OF
MEXICO.  PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED OVER SRN
APPALACHIANS AND MS DELTA AREA...AND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN
ATLANTIC COAST AND NRN GULF THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY BISECTING GULF
SW-NE...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS NRN FL...ERN-MOST GA...NEWD INTO WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NRN SC/SRN NC.

...CENTRAL CAROLINAS...
MODIFIED 00Z GSO RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHALLOW LAYER
OF SATURATION BENEATH VERY WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN 650-800 MB
LAYER...LEADING TO ELEVATED MUCAPES AOB 100 J/KG. 
FRONTOGENETIC/CYCLOGENETIC REGIME IN THIS AREA IS AIDING
LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT AS WELL AS WEAK DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH NERN
PORTION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS REGIME FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. 
HOWEVER...LACK OF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY AND EXPECTED DECLINE IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH TIME EACH INDICATE POTENTIAL REMAINS
TOO MARGINAL AND ISOLATED FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM