[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251948
SWODY1
SPC AC 251947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...

19Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW E OF JAX WWD TO SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR
PNS AND THEN WSWWD TO AN ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SERN LA
/W OF NEW/.  DESPITE A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER /I.E.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ S OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIMITED
SBCAPES TO AOB 200-500 J/KG.  THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE CNTRL AND
SRN FL PENINSULA WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
STRONGER INSTABILITY.

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN
GULF COAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF
MODESTLY STRONG /50-70 KT/ WSWLY FLOW CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.

SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY FROM THE
FL PNHDL EWD ACROSS NRN FL.  ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SWD INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WHERE STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING.

THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO
BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY.  LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD.. 02/25/2006