[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211259
SWODY1
SPC AC 211257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE S CNTRL AND ERN U.S. INTO
WEDNESDAY...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
IN THE WEST.  UPR LOW IN BASE OF TROUGH...JUST NOW ENTERING SRN
CA...SHOULD BECOME REABSORBED INTO THE WLYS AS A NRN STREAM SPEED
MAX DROPS SE ACROSS BC.

...ARKLATEX...
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE
SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY TODAY AS MODERATE SW TO WSW 850 FLOW PERSISTS IN
RESPONSE TO PASSING LOW AMPLITUDE UPR DISTURBANCES...AND TO
STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE MID MS/OH VLYS.
THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AT THE SAME TIME...WLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ADVECT EML ABOVE THE MOISTENING LOWER LAYERS...CAPPING REGION
TO DEEP SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.

WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS ALONG CORRIDOR FROM N TX EWD INTO
THE ARKLATEX/NRN MS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB THERMAL
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN IN WAKE OF A NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MID MS VLY.  MAINTENANCE OF WARM/MOIST INFLOW INTO
STRENGTHENING 850 FRONT...AND POSSIBLE ASSISTANCE FROM PASSING
IMPULSES IN SUBTROPICAL JET...MAY SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER NRN/ERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
NEAR MINUS 20 DEG C MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY ABSENCE OF AN
IDENTIFIABLE UPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND BY SEASONABLY WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

..CORFIDI.. 02/21/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM