[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210541
SWODY1
SPC AC 210540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON TUE WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS SKIRTING THE NRN TIER. 
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS CA SINCE LATE LAST WEEK WILL
BECOME CUT-OFF IN THE SRN BRANCH BY TUE AFTN.  THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE DESERT SW AS A TROUGH OVER NWRN BC BEGINS
TO DIG SEWD.  

...SERN PLAINS...
SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ON TUE...PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING ZONAL UPPER JET STRUCTURE ACROSS THE OH VLY.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
TX THROUGH THE DAY.  SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT A STOUT EML ATOP
THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...CAPPING SURFACE BASED PARCELS AND
PRECLUDING DAYTIME TSTM PROBABILITIES. 

SUBTROPICAL WARM CONVEYOR AHEAD OF THE DESERT SW TROUGH WILL CARRY
SUBTLE JETLETS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT.  MAINTENANCE OF
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH BROAD WEAK ASCENT
TIED TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS LATE TUE NIGHT...DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE STRONG EML.  ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY AOB MINUS 20 DEG C WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SPORADIC
LIGHTNING IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD BE
MITIGATED BY THE EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY.

..RACY.. 02/21/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM