[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 171909
SWODY1
SPC AC 171907

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHEAST...
RAPID DEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IS ONGOING ACROSS THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND MODELS SUGGEST 1 MB+ PER HOUR FALLS OF MINIMUM
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DESPITE BEING CUT
OFF FROM GULF OF MEXICO RETURN FLOW...AND LIMITED INFLOW OFF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...INTENSE LIFT NEAR SURFACE FRONT TRAILING TO THE
SOUTH OF LOW HAS SUPPORTED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE.  FRONT/FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST IN
ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO TONIGHT.

...GULF STATES...
STRONG COLD INTRUSION HAS NOSED INTO WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...
BUT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS ALREADY OCCURRING ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL
INVERSION ACROSS EAST TEXAS.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF STATES BY 12Z SATURDAY. 
CONVECTION/CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
CONFLUENT REGIME NEAR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT...FROM PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF STATES/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED BY RELATIVELY WARM
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...
AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

...CALIFORNIA...
A BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWEST OF THE OREGON COAST...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE...THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IS
SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS ALONG THE COASTAL
RANGES THIS AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION INLAND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS MAY ALSO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 02/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM