[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 171259
SWODY1
SPC AC 171258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING WRN NY/PA WILL REACH WRN NEW
ENGLAND BY MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWING SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES E/NE
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. FAST-MOVING ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL SWEEP E OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/ MID
ATLANTIC CST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WEST...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
AMPLIFYING OVER ORE/NRN CA.  AN IMPULSE NOW W OF KSFO SHOULD DAMPEN
AS IT CONTINUES E INTO CNTRL CA LATER TODAY.  AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
THAT ATTM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SWWD OFF THE WA CST SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH NRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...NRN PA/CNTRL AND ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
A NARROW LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG COLD
FRONT AS IT CROSSED WRN NY/PA EARLIER THIS MORNING.  THIS BAND IS
PRECEDED BY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS IN
THE OH VLY.  GIVEN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF
BOTH CONVECTIVE LINES...AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DO
NOT FORESEE INTENSIFICATION OF THE BANDS AS THEY MOVE E ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTAL UPLIFT AND MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/BASED NEAR 700 MB PER AREA SOUNDINGS/ MAY YIELD OCCASIONAL CG
LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT PROSPECTS FOR SUSTAINED THUNDER APPEAR LOW. 
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION IN PREFRONTAL AIR SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW...ALTHOUGH HIGH SURFACE
WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR MAINLY INVOF TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS IN
ERN NY/NEW ENGLAND GIVEN 60+ KT LLJ.

...CA...
FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /950 TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES
AOA 7 DEG C PER KM AND TOTAL TOTALS INDICES IN THE MID 50S/ WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN CA TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES INLAND.  WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN
RATHER DRY...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL CA
MOUNTAINS.  SOME ACTIVITY MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE CST...AND OVER THE
SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS.

..CORFIDI.. 02/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM