[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161630
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OHIO MID  MS AND WRN TN
VALLEYS...

...OH AND MID MS/WRN TN  VALLEYS...

VERY STRONG...FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVING FROM CURRENT LOCATION
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IN/IL WSWWD CENTRAL MO INTO WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLE.  DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE SWRN MO WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS IL
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT INTO SWRN ONTARIO. IN
THE WAKE OF SURFACE LOW STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SEWD THRU SRN
PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT.

850MB 50-60 KT SWLY WINDS SPREADING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS MID MS INTO
 LOWER OH VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THRU THE 50S. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR THE
CURRENT VIGOROUS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NRN IL. VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATED ON REGIONAL VWP'S SUPPORTS ELEVATED
ROTATING STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX.  MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND NEAR SEVERE WINDS GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  REF
MCD 146.

FURTHER S AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM HAS SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN PLAINS INTO
LOWER MO VALLEY.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG FRONTAL LIFT AND LARGE SCALE UVV'S WITH S/WV
TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE INITIAL SUBSTANTIAL CIN.  WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS AOA
60F MLCAPES WILL RANGE DOWNWARD FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG IN WARM SECTOR
SRN PLAINS TO AROUND 500 J/KG INTO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS.

CIN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. INITIAL THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...HOWEVER THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING 100 KT 500 MB WIND MAX SUPPORTS ROTATING STORMS. 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS WITH INCREASING
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS MID
MS INTO OH AND WRN TN VALLEYS.

GIVEN THE INTENSE WIND FIELDS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY THRU THE EVENING HOURS EITHER EMBEDDED WITHIN
OR JUST AHEAD OF THE LINES/BOWS. THUS GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP.  

VERY IMPRESSIVE 110KT 500MB AND 150KT PLUS 300MB WIND MAXES
TRAVERSING THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE.  AMOUNT OF SEVERE OVERNIGHT IS
DEPENDENT ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.  IF INSTABILITY GREATER THAN NOW
EXPECTED AFTERNOON OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE
CURRENT SLIGHT RISK .

..HALES.. 02/16/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM