[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161215
SWODY1
SPC AC 161213

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS AND
OH VALLEYS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS TODAY.  UPPER SYSTEM IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH 110+ KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING ACROSS IL/IND. 
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
IL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS MI TONIGHT.  VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS /60-80 KNOTS AT 850MB/ WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN/MID MS VALLEYS...TRANSPORTING
MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM
CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHEAST AR.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE
INTO A SQUALL LINE AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF IND/OH/KY/TN
DURING THE EVENING.  VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
KY/TN THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES. 
ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ALSO SUGGEST A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...ALONG WITH A
GREATER THREAT OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. 
SQUALL LINE MAY MOVE AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN OH OVERNIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 02/16/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM