[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071231
SWODY1
SPC AC 071230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PLAINS TO ATLANTIC COAST...
TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...A BROAD
CYCLONIC BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE HAS PROGRESSED
THROUGH ALL BUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ACCELERATES ACROSS THE
MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND AT LEAST A WEAK
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. 
HOWEVER...THIS REGION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLDER
NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR WESTERLIES...AND WITH LITTLE OR NO FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...
A CLOSED LOW HAS BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF POLAR
WESTERLIES...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS
SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...OVER THE LOWER LATITUDE SOUTHEAST
PACIFIC/MEXICAN PLATEAU.  AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  DRY...GENERALLY STABLE...SUBSIDENT REGIME WILL
MINIMIZE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

..KERR.. 02/07/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM