[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070101
SWODY1
SPC AC 070059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE HUM 15 S ASD
25 NNW GZH 15 NNE AUO 35 NW MCN 35 NNW VDI 35 WSW SAV 20 W JAX 60
ESE AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SWRN GA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL AL SWWD THROUGH
SERN MS AND SERN LA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN
AL...SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. STORMS THAT INITIATED THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT FROM SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL. A
40+ KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MODEST
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG AND SHOULD BECOME
MORE LIMITED AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND HELP TO SUSTAIN A
LINE OF FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SOME ORGANIZED
STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN THE LINE AND A MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE SURFACE BASED. THE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO VEER WITH TIME
SUGGEST ANY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 02/07/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM