[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 210036
SWODY1
SPC AC 210034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST WED DEC 20 2006

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO EXTREME SERN
TX AND SRN LA TONIGHT AS MARINE LAYER STRUGGLES TO MOVE VERY FAR
INLAND.  EVEN SO...PARCEL BUOYANCY WILL PROVE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS
LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AND MOIST.  00Z SOUNDING FROM LCH SUGGESTS
CONVECTION IS ROOTED NEAR 950 MB...WHILE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AT
SRN EXTENT OF WARM CONVEYOR SEEMS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR MEANINGFUL
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS ADEQUATE FOR DEEP ROTATION...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED...HENCE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTY WINDS OR
PERHAPS A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO.

FARTHER NORTH...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONGER FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM AR INTO
MO.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY STRONG ASCENT ACTING ON WEAK
INSTABILITY WITHIN 700-400MB LAYER.

..DARROW.. 12/21/2006