[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 311616
SWODY1
SPC AC 311614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST SUN DEC 31 2006

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST STATES AND TN VALLEY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP UPPER LOW OVER KS/MO LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.  BAND OF 90-110 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
TODAY...WHILE 40-60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY.  RESULTING VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILE WOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATION STORMS IF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WERE PRESENT.  HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE BELOW 60F FROM NORTHERN AL NORTHWARD WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO BELOW 300 J/KG AND PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT.  HIGHER DEWPOINTS VALUES /IN THE MID 60S/ LIE ACROSS
PARTS OF AL/FL/GA...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES MAY APPROACH 500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME.  EMBEDDED STORMS
IN THIS AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO. 
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS QUITE LIMITED TODAY.

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
DRY SLOT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  CLOUDS ARE ERODING IN THIS AREA...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IL/IND.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BENEATH MID
LEVEL COLD POOL...COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF WI/MI DURING THE EVENING. 
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE COLD...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART.. 12/31/2006