[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 182002
SWODY1
SPC AC 182000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST MON DEC 18 2006

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COLD UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON LOCATED VICINITY CA/BAJA CA BORDER IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD INTO SWRN AZ BY 12Z TUE. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ERN AZ
INTO NM THRU TONIGHT AS 90KT MID LEVEL JET MAX CROSSING NRN BAJA
HEADS TOWARD SWRN NM.

AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION E OF UPPER LOW REMAINS
LIMITED...BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND STEEPENING OF MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED HIGHER TERRAIN ERN AZ/WRN
NM.

TONIGHT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED WEAK CONVECTION...ISOLATED
LIGHTNING...LIKELY WILL DEVELOP INTO ERN NM AND FAR W TX ABOVE THE
SHALLOW COLD DOME WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER JET AND SOME MID LEVEL
COOLING.

..HALES.. 12/18/2006