[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141302
SWODY1
SPC AC 141300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST THU DEC 14 2006

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NOAM
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DOMINANT NRN STREAM JET.  A STRONG IMPULSE IN
THE JET OVER THE NE PACIFIC...CROSSING 140W...WILL CONTINUE E OR
SLIGHTLY N OF E INTO CANADIAN RCKYS/WRN MT BY 12Z FRIDAY.  THE
WEAKER SRN BRANCH...LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE LWR RIO
GRANDE SHOULD MOVE MORE SLOWLY INTO THE WRN GULF.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
LOW LEVEL ESE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN 65-70F DEWPOINTS
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL TODAY...WHERE MODEST DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH WEAK UPR LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM RIO
GRANDE TROUGH.  BUT WITH LIMITED INHIBITION...EVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INVOF OF OLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DEEP ENOUGH TO YIELD THUNDER.  30 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS...BUT WEAK LAPSE
RATES/LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR SEVERE.

...WRN WA/ORE...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED NE PACIFIC FRONTAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS WRN WA AND ORE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. 
ATTENDANT PRECIP BAND MAY CONTAIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER.  A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDER
WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY AWAIT ARRIVAL OF FAST...COOL AND UNSTABLE
POST-FRONTAL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE WA/ORE CASCADES.

...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG PATH OF
FAST-MOVING NRN STREAM IMPULSE CROSSING THE UPR MS VLY THIS MORNING.
 SOME CONVECTION LIKELY WILL PERSIST WITH FEATURE AS IT MOVES
FARTHER E AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS SRN MN/SRN WI/NRN IA/LK MI AND WRN
LWR MI LATER TODAY.  LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING COVERAGE ISOLATED
DESPITE AMPLIFICATION OF UPR SYSTEM.

...S TX...
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/HELP MAINTAIN CAP...THEREBY
PRECLUDING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WEAK UPR TROUGH
CROSSES REGION LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI.. 12/14/2006