[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141604
SWODY1
SPC AC 141602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 AM CST THU DEC 14 2006

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NRN U.S. AND SRN
CANADA.  S OF 40N...CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL WAVE TRAIN.  SURFACE RIDGING FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
SRN PLAINS CONFINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO FAR S TX AND THE FL PENINSULA.

AREA OF GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD
BE SRN FL WHERE LOW LEVEL SELYS HAVE IMPORTED A MOIST BUT ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  WITH APPROACH OF THE WEAK EMBEDDED
S/WV TROUGH NOTED IN WV OVER SRN TX...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SRN FL.  LIMITED HEATING...WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL SHEAR PRECLUDES ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

NEXT IN CURRENT SERIES OF DEEP CYCLONES MOVES ACROSS VANCOUVER
ISLAND THIS EVENING BRINGING VERY STRONG WINDS INLAND PAC NW.  WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO COASTAL
AREAS...PRIMARILY TONIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW.

WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FAR S TX THRU MID
AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND TO
THE S AS THE MID LEVEL S/WV CURRENTLY CROSSING S TX MOVES ON TO THE
E.

..HALES.. 12/14/2006