[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120058
SWODY1
SPC AC 120056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST MON DEC 11 2006

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO/MS VLYS SWD TO NE TX/NRN LA...
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
ASSOCD WITH A LEAD MID-LEVEL JETLET WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD
THROUGH THE MID-MO VLY INTO CNTRL/SRN IA THIS EVE.  LATEST ACARS
SOUNDING FROM KMCI SAMPLED A WARM NOSE AROUND 810 MB...BUT WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES ABOVE.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN WITH TIME AS THE PRIMARY UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION AND MUCAPES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS
500-700 J/KG.  THIS WAS ALREADY EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING
WHERE H85-H5 LAPSE RATES WERE IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C PER KM AND MUCAPE
OF 557 J/KG.  AS A RESULT...SPORADIC TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
FROM EXTREME SERN NEB AND NERN KS NEWD INTO NWRN MO AND CNTRL/SRN IA
THIS EVE WITH SOME TENDENCY TO DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MO TO THE
N OF INTERSTATE 70.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
CAPE-BEARING SHEAR...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ESTABLISHED 
FROM THE WRN GULF COAST NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING.  SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE
WRN PARTS OF THIS CONVEYOR LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  00Z LZK
RAOB SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES WERE RATHER POOR...BUT AS THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREAD EWD AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVES AFTER
06Z...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM
SERN MO SWD INTO CNTRL AR AND NRN LA.  STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG SRN
PARTS OF THE TSTM OTLK.

..RACY.. 12/12/2006