[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120534
SWODY1
SPC AC 120532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST MON DEC 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LWR OH VLY AND MID-SOUTH...
COMPLEX UPPER WAVE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY ON TUESDAY WILL
TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE INITIAL LEAD WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CORN BELT EARLY IN
THE DAY WILL DAMPEN AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO ROTATE
EWD TOWARD THE UPPER GRTLKS DURING THE AFTN.  STRONGER LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE LWR OH VLY
DURING THE DAY.

WARM CONVEYOR CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE MIDWEST...BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT HAVE REMAINED POOR. 
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL IMPROVE TUE MORNING AND AS STRONGER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH THE MAIN IMPULSE LIFTS NEWD...THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SHOWERS MAY INTENSIFY INTO TSTMS.  MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LWR OH VLY/MID-SOUTH
FROM LATE TUE MORNING INTO THE AFTN.  MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR IN THE CAPE BEARING LAYER MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO ISOLD STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. 

TSTMS PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z WED ACROSS THE
OH/TN VLYS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD BEYOND THE GULF
MOISTURE PLUME.

..RACY.. 12/12/2006