[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111622
SWODY1
SPC AC 111619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST MON DEC 11 2006

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT DEEP UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH SERIES OF
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST.  RATHER
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXTEND FROM TX/LA INTO
THE MIDWEST.  THIS IS PROVIDING RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL/
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.  SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...
GENERAL LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MORE
THAN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

GREATER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF MO/IL/IA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN AR AS PLUME OF STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS REGION.  CAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE
LOW.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
SMALL HAIL.  NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...WA/ORE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE WA/ORE/CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
TODAY.  STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL POSE A
RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES FROM WESTERN
WA INTO ORE.

..HART.. 12/11/2006