[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111936
SWODY1
SPC AC 111934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST MON DEC 11 2006

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL STATES...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS...WITH A 70+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK
NOSING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION.  HOWEVER...LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER KANSAS
REMAINS WEAK...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...STILL MODIFYING IN THE WAKE OF SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT COLD
INTRUSIONS...IS JUST UNDERWAY.

MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REACHED THE ARKLATEX...AND
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
OZARKS BY LATE TONIGHT.  ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN IN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NORTH OF THIS REGION IS ALREADY OCCURRING
...WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT IN RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS STILL CAPPED BY A
RELATIVELY WARM 850-700 MB LAYER.  THIS MAY REMAIN THE CASE AT LEAST
ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BUT CLOSER TO 00Z...AND MORE LIKELY
THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID/
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  SOME HAIL...POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS...MAY
ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS...BUT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE EXPECTED AT 
OR BELOW 500 J/KG...IT APPEARS MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. 

OTHERWISE...A MORE GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING AND CONTINUED INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN BROADER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND COLDER EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES...
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ARE SPREADING TOWARD NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON/VANCOUVER ISLAND...WHERE IT APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXISTS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.

..KERR.. 12/11/2006