[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011952
SWODY1
SPC AC 011949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST FRI DEC 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PA...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NY AND NORTHWEST NJ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC
REGION INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...MID-ATLANTIC INTO NY STATE AND CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUED TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VLY AT
MID-AFTN AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SERN CANADA TONIGHT.  CYCLOGENESIS
CONTINUES ACROSS WRN NY STATE AHEAD OF THE LOW.  THIS LOW WILL MOVE
INTO SRN QUE THIS EVENING.  A WEAKER SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW MAY BE FORMING
ACROSS CNTRL PA AS THE SRN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADS
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INTO SCNTRL/SERN
NY THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

A WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUED TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM THE WRN
NY CYCLONE EWD INTO SRN NH WILL LIKELY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NWD...BUT IT APPEARS THAT EXTREME NRN SECTIONS OF NY-VT-NH AND MOST
OF MAINE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR THE LONGEST...MITIGATING
WIDESPREAD SVR WEATHER.

FARTHER S...A SEGMENTED COLD FRONT EXISTS FROM SWRN NY ACROSS PA
INTO THE CAROLINAS.  INITIAL BAND OF TSTMS THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS WRN PA HAD WEAKENED...BUT APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING
AGAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH ERN PA INTO SCNTRL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED TO NEAR 70 DEG F RESULTING IN RUC-DERIVED MLCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG.  AS THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION...THE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY AS THEY
TRANSLATE INTO ERN PA AND SCNTRL-SERN NY WITH BOWS/LEWPS.  55 KT 1KM
FLOW WILL LIKELY BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC...AUGMENTING POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.  FURTHERMORE...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP.
FARTHER N...REMNANT BAND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
CNTRL NY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...PRIMARY LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE FROM THE NRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION/SERN NY EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND.  SLY FLOW
HAS BROUGHT A MARINE ENVIRONMENT NWD INTO MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. 
BUT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY TURBULENT TO
MAINTAIN A SLGT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THAT REGION OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 12/01/2006