[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 310551
SWODY1
SPC AC 310549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER ERN CO...WELL AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PLUNGE SWD THROUGH WY LATER THIS MORNING. LATE
EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELY COMPONENT SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH
AT LEAST 2KM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WITHIN SLIGHT RISK REGION.
 ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...SRN INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN WLY FLOW
ALOFT AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS TO SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN CONVECTIVE
CYCLE. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION...CONVECTION SHOULD
EVOLVE IN THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME OVER NERN CO INTO SWRN NEB...THEN
SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO/WRN KS.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION MERGES AND EVOLVES INTO
CLUSTER-TYPE ECHOES.  ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S SHOULD SPREAD SEWD
TOWARD NWRN OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.


...ERNESTO...

CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS MOVED OFF THE FL COAST AND IS
LIFTING NNEWD TOWARD THE SC/NC COAST.  STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OR PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO.  IN
THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE WARMER ATLANTIC
WATERS...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL SUFFICE FOR THE SERN U.S.

...AZ...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATION REGIONS OF AZ THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE AN
INCH IN MOST PLACES.  LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SW OF AZ OVER THE NRN BAJA REGION/GULF
OF CA...LIFTING NEWD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.  TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...HOWEVER PARCELS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH THEIR LFC WITH
MID 90S TO NEAR 100F.  ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN
HIGH WATER CONTENT...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 08/31/2006