[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 311235
SWODY1
SPC AC 311234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER AND CONTINUE MOVING NWD ACROSS ERN NC THROUGH 01/12Z. 
MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PRIOR TO LANDFALL WILL
RESULT IN A BROADER AREA OF STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE STORM CORE.  ADDITIONALLY...THE FORWARD QUADRANTS OF ERNESTO
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE ERN
CAROLINAS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
TO FOCUS THE SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY SPREAD INLAND
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...AND THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO ERN CO.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 58-62
F ARE RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF
THE LEE TROUGH.  THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON
/MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION IN
NE CO...AND CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS SW NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT
MULTICELL CLUSTERS.  LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS FROM ABOUT 21-03Z.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/31/2006