[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 301959
SWODY1
SPC AC 301957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC...
ROBUST MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED WITHIN VERY MOIST AND
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SRN AL/GA BORDER AREA NEWD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS TO VA/WV. PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL FRONT/OUTFLOW AND WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NC HAS FOCUSED MOST VIGOROUS STORMS ACROSS
ECNTRL NC WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR RESIDES
NORTH OF NC CONVECTION...AND LARGER SCALE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN UPWARD
MOTION APPEARS LIMITED...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE
HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST ACROSS WRN WV AND
APPEARS LINKED WITH SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW TRAVELING EAST ALONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
STORM ROTATION AND INSTABILITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT MAY
PERSIST FROM WV EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN/SCNTRL VA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

...ERN FL...
T.D. ERNESTO APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING NNEWD TOWARD ERN FL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION ON TRACK TO MOVE
OVER THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT. WIND FIELDS IN THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW
LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL DISORGANIZED BANDING AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE LOW TRACK DO NOT...ATTM...APPEAR PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE FOR
DISCRETE AND PERSISTENT STORMS.

...SRN AZ...
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN AZ WHERE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG. FORCING AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD POSE SOME DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
NARROW N-S AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE CAP REMAINS QUITE
STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...RAP MORNING SOUNDING ADJUSTED FOR
LATEST SURFACE CONDITIONS REVEALS THAT INHIBITION ACROSS THIS AREA
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING/MIXING...AND
PERHAPS OROGRAPHIC FORCING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS...MAY PROVE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
APPROACHING 30KT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AND CONTRIBUTE TO
SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY FORM.

ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
STRONG EML AND LIMITED MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO RESTRICT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION.

..CARBIN.. 08/30/2006