[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 310048
SWODY1
SPC AC 310046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S...

ERNESTO CONTINUES ITS NNEWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE ECNTRL FL COAST THIS
EVENING.  STRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
SOON BE MOSTLY OFFSHORE...ALONG WITH ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS THE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL INLAND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE...NEWD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION INTO COASTAL NC. 
HOWEVER...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT IS BEGINNING TO STABILIZE.  ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING WILL NOT PROVE HELPFUL FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT THE REST
OF TONIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH MCS
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND OVER COASTAL NC.

...BLACK HILLS/NEB PANHANDLE...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN SD INTO THE NWRN NEB
PANHANDLE IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER PARCEL INFLOW. 
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INHIBITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTLY.  LLJ MAY MAINTAIN
THIS CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER
LOW.

...AZ...

STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AZ DESERTS WILL PROVE SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS BENEATH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
PROPAGATING SWWD INTO YUMA COUNTY.  COLD POOL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
ESTABLISHED SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

..DARROW.. 08/31/2006