[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280601
SWODY1
SPC AC 280559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON AUG 28 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS
PERIOD...AS A SECOND/STRONGER FEATURE MOVES SEWD INTO THE PAC NW. 
WIND FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY WEAK...THOUGH BELT OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED /30 TO 35 KT/
WSWLY FLOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AROUND SRN SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WWD ACROSS THE OH ALLEY AND THEN SWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO
CENTRAL TX SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THIS PERIOD...AS LOW/FRONTAL WAVE
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THOUGH COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...OH VALLEY REGION...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. 
NONETHELESS...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY...AS
POCKETS OF DESTABILIZATION DEVELOP.  

NAM SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL FEATURE -- DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
IN WV IMAGERY ATTM -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH.  THOUGH AREA WILL NOT BE UPGRADED TO
SLIGHT RISK ATTM DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...A SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE
ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...OZARKS SWWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND THEN NWWD INTO NM...
THOUGH STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.  DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT...HOWEVER...FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
-- BOTH ALONG FRONT ACROSS AR AND TX...AND IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
REGIME INTO NM.  

DESPITE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION.  THEREFORE...EXPECT PULSE AND
MULTICELL STORM MODES TO PREVAIL -- THUS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. 
THOUGH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST...SITUATION DOES NOT
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ATTM.

..GOSS.. 08/28/2006