[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281223
SWODY1
SPC AC 281221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT MON AUG 28 2006

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD
TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A
BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS NRN MO WILL CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP
EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE.
 IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS OK/N TX/NW AR AND MO.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH
PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS...WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.

...OH VALLEY...
A BROAD SWATH OF RICH LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE /PW VALUES OF 1.75-2.25
INCHES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F/ IS PRESENT FROM THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY AND NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION.  WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THE PAST TWO DAYS WITHIN THIS SWATH HAS REDUCED
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ROUGHLY MOIST ADIABATIC...WHICH WILL
LIMIT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE LOW.  ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THE MAJORITY
OF THE WARM SECTOR.  RELATIVELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR IMMEDIATELY E OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALONG WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY/MOIST PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY
SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD BE REMAIN MARGINAL.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/28/2006