[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 150553
SWODY1
SPC AC 150552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN TODAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ID AND MT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND THIS EVENING
SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OCCURS IN
AREAS WITH THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING TIMING AND DESTABILIZATION STILL REMAINS. ONCE CERTAINTY
INCREASES IN THE SCENARIO...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME
NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM SRN MS
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS AL AND GA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES. ALTHOUGH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP...THE WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT ISOLATED.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR AREAS OF LOCALLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/15/2006