[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 151222
SWODY1
SPC AC 151220

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/CAROLINAS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THIS
MORNING...WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINING CONTROL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES.  WEAK SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM MID
ATLANTIC REGION INTO OK/AR.  THIS ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF BOUNDARY WILL BE HOT TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F.  DESPITE HIGH THETA-E VALUES AT THE
SURFACE...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND
AVAILABLE CAPE.  ALSO...BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES ALOFT...WITH ONLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  ISOLATED CELLS ALONG THIS AXIS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER FEATURES ARE NOTED ON MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THESE
FEATURES HAVE RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
ID/UT/WY OVERNIGHT.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED RISK OF
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SPREADS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN ID/NORTHWEST WY...WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS. FINALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER PARTS OF ND/SD AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
AND ENHANCES WARM ADVECTION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A THREAT OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS IN THIS REGION...WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 08/15/2006