[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130552
SWODY1
SPC AC 130551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF
THE U.S. SUNDAY AIDED BY MOIST MID-HIGH LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS
THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...WHILE SELY CONFLUENT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WRN EDGE OF OH VALLEY ANTICYCLONE.  THIS
MOIST REGIME WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
RENEWED DAYTIME CONVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE
SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT PARTICULARLY HELPFUL
DEPICTING POTENTIAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN TROPICAL CONNECTION
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES IN THE SWRN U.S.  AS A RESULT...DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. 
LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS KS INTO
WRN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY ALONG
SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WLY FLOW/ZONE OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS IN
ADVANCE OF NRN PLAINS TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...IT
APPEARS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY BE POST WIND SHIFT. 
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE BY 20Z ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...SHIFTING EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
EVENING...ARCING SWWD INTO KS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE
WEAK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE MID MS VALLEY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE MODE...THEN LIKELY MATURE INTO
FORCED BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION THAT MAY GENERATE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE DOWNSTREAM DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...ELSEWHERE...

DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SERN U.S. INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL
ONCE AGAIN AID ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
AFTERNOON.  ASIDE FROM LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER BENIGN.

..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 08/13/2006