[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131248
SWODY1
SPC AC 131247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN KS/NEB INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...MN/IA/WI/MI...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
MT/WY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WEAKER
EMBEDDED FEATURES ARE INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE OVER PARTS OF
SD/NEB...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HARDER TO IDENTIFY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM SD/NEB/KS INTO MN/IA.  THIS
SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TODAY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S...COUPLED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG FROM MN/IA EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DESPITE ONLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG
AS SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS REGION. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MN/IA
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WI AND UPPER MI BEFORE WEAKENING THIS
EVENING.

...EASTERN NEB/KS/NORTHERN MO...
STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING IS ANTICIPATED SOUTH AND WEST OF
AFOREMENTIONED AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 90S FROM EASTERN NEB INTO PARTS OF KS/MO.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MUCH WEAKER IN THIS AREA THAN
FARTHER NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 08/13/2006