[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061952
SWODY1
SPC AC 061950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
A LARGE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS EWD FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXISTS FROM NRN KS EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL IA. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S F RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NRN KS AND SERN NEB AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION SPREADING ENEWD INTO SRN
IA. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SHEAR PROFILES MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
MULTICELLS. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL MAKE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON.

...EAST TX/WRN LA/ERN OK/WRN OZARKS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WWD MOVING WAVE OVER THE NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
LOCATED MAINLY ALONG BANDS OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG MULTICELL AND/OR PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/06/2006