[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070040
SWODY1
SPC AC 070038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SUN AUG 06 2006

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRECEDES SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN
NEB/SWRN IA TO NERN KS AND NWRN MO THIS EVENING. COLD POOL FROM THIS
CONVECTION HAS SPREAD OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND APPEARS TO BE
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN HOT AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND SCATTERED DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES FURTHER.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
ROBUST STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF POST-OUTFLOW ASCENT 
OVER NWRN KS...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT FROM
ERN CO TO NERN WY. DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING EAST ACROSS
NERN CO. GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WITH WIND AND HAIL COULD PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS EVENING.

...SERN TX...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE REGIME ACROSS THE UPPER TX GULF COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER WAVE
DEVELOPING NWWD FROM THE GULF. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIFT
FROM THE UPPER WAVE MAY SUSTAIN MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION INTO THE NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WET
DOWNBURSTS.

...SRN CASCADES...
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER THE SISKIYOU
MOUNTAINS AND SRN CASCADES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY BROADLY DIFFLUENT
MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF UPPER LOW EDGING NEWD TOWARD THE NRN CA
COAST. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND
SUFFICIENT FORCING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A
HAIL/WIND EVENT OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 08/07/2006