[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 022005
SWODY1
SPC AC 022003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN U.S. AND GREAT
LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
FROM SWRN QUEBEC SWWD THRU SERN ONTARIO TO A LOW OVER EXTREME ERN
UPR MI/NRN LWR MI.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM THE LOW THRU
CENTRAL WI.  THESE BOUNDARIES ARE AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPR
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SWWD INTO NERN NEB.
 THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO WI/IA BY 03/12Z.

...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO NEW YORK
STATE...

AIR MASS IS ABNORMALLY HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 70S FROM NEW YORK INTO SRN ME
AND COASTAL MA.  NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE TRACKING EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NH AND CENTRAL NY STATE.  MLCAPE VALUES ARE
2000-2500 J/KG FROM ERN LE REGION THRU SRN NEW ENGLAND.  RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAPSE RATES ARE BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5C/KM...BUT
THE DATA ALSO SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRYING ABOVE 720 MB WHICH WOULD
INDICATE THAT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME N CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD THRU GRB AND
RST AND WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND SWD ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING/RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WITHIN STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT
WHERE MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-3000 J/KG.  RUC MODEL SOUNDING AT OSH
SHOWS MID LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
7C/KM. THIS WOULD INDICATE AGAIN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THRU THIS AFTERNOON.

...IA SWWD INTO KS...

WARM AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
IS PRESENT THRU THIS AREA.  WEAK FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NERN IA INTO SWRN KS.  LOOKS LIKE MAINLY MID LEVEL BASED TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS EFFECTIVE
CAPE VALUES ARE RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG.  THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURST WINDS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST
3KM OF 8.5C/KM.

..MCCARTHY.. 08/02/2006