[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030054
SWODY1
SPC AC 030053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT WED AUG 02 2006

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
EXTENSIVE FRONTAL ZONE LIES ALONG THE NWRN/NRN PERIPHERY OF DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...NEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...AND THEN EWD FROM SRN ONTARIO TO NRN NEW ENGLAND.
PACKETS OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLYS...WERE AIDING SURFACE CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEGMENTS OF THE FRONT FROM KS TO MI TO SRN
ONTARIO. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE
OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR OVER THREE REGIONS. FROM WEST-TO-EAST THESE
REGIONS ARE...THE MO RIVER VALLEY...IL/MI... AND UPSTATE NY/WRN NEW
ENGLAND.

...KS/MO/EXTREME SERN NEB AND SRN IA...
WELL ORGANIZED MESOSCALE STORM COMPLEX ACROSS KS HAS PRODUCED A
LARGE COLD POOL. RESULTANT OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
IN HOT/WELL-MIXED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM ERN KS EWD
INTO MO. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...
AND PERHAPS A MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT...MAY EVOLVE FROM
FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NEB AND INTO VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IA/NRN MO TO THE MS RIVER
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...IL/MI...
SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRECEDE THE SURFACE FRONT SITUATED
FROM SRN WI ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI THIS EVENING. MOST INTENSE STORMS
WERE NOW DEVELOPING INTO AN AXIS OF LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY FROM
CHICAGO ACROSS SRN LAKE MI...AND INTO SWRN MI. SOMEWHAT LIMITED DEEP
SHEAR EXIST OVER THIS REGION BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS FROM ILX AND
DTX. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AS
CONVECTION PERSISTS AND DEVELOPS GRADUALLY EWD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...NY/VT...
PER COORDINATION WITH ENVIRONMENT CANADA AND REVIEW OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FROM SRN/SWRN ONTARIO...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND WAS ACCOMPANYING
STORMS NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING. THIS LINEAR MCS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
FEEDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL WAVE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES AND INTO NY AND PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM BUF AND ALY
DEPICTED RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUSTAIN SEVERE STORMS.
OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO FAVOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A SEVERE MCS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS MOVING ACROSS
UPSTATE NY AND PARTS OF VT INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

..CARBIN.. 08/03/2006