[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011634
SWODY1
SPC AC 011633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
1133 AM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB THROUGH UPR GRT
LKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NY THROUGH NRN / CNTRL
NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL UPR RIDGE WILL ELONGATE E TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST THIS
PERIOD AS BELT OF STRONG WLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SRN QUEBEC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS LWR ST LAWRENCE VLY.  IN THE
WEST...TROUGH OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO THE NRN
PLNS WHILE A SERIES OF WEAKER IMPULSES MOVE NEWD IN BELT OF ENHANCED
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SRN HI PLNS TO THE UPR MS VLY.

SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE ONTARIO DISTURBANCE SHOULD TRACK E
ACROSS QUEBEC...ALLOWING NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT NOW MOVING INTO
MAINE. FARTHER W...TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY S/SE
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS...THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND THE UPR GRT LKS.


...NE NY INTO NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...
ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS ALREADY MOVING SE OUT OF QUEBEC INTO NRN
VT/WRN ME...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER MOVING SE THROUGH QUEBEC.
WARM/MOIST SWLY LLJ PLUS LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL ASCENT WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SEVERE THREAT
MAY BE MITIGATED BY UPPER RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON THE
WESTERN END OF THE SLIGHT RISK.

BY EARLY EVENING...COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...LACK OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON SRN FRINGE OF
QUEBEC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG BOTH THE WARM FRONT...AND ALONG COLD FRONT SETTLING S OVER THE
ST. LAWRENCE VLY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE E/ESE ACROSS NRN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG /30-40 KT/ DEEP W TO NWLY CLOUD-LAYER
FLOW...AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY.  ASSOCIATED BOWING SEGMENTS COULD
YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO VERY
HEAVY RAIN...AS PWS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES.

...MID MO VLY TO UPR GRT LKS...
STORM OUTFLOW/LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LIKELY WILL MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT
OVER PARTS OF NEB AND IA TODAY.  HOWEVER...AIR MASS E OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  MLCAPE
TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER IA...AND FROM ERN IA INTO
CNTRL/SRN WI AND LWR MI.

WHILE ELEVATED STORMS COULD POSE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT INVOF FRONT
OVER ERN NEB INTO WRN IA...GREATER CHANCE FOR SEVERE IS POSSIBLE IN
ERN IA THROUGH WI/LWR MI WHERE LACK OF CLOUD COVER RESULTS IN
STRONGER AFTERNOON HEATING. WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND.

...SERN U.S...
WNWD-MOVING UPR IMPULSE OVER WRN AL MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR A
CLUSTER OR TWO OF DIURNAL PULSE STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND IN
MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE REGION.

.,.GREAT BASIN...
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD.

..AFWA.. 08/01/2006