[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011929
SWODY1
SPC AC 011928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE
0228 PM CDT TUE AUG 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA INTO MICHIGAN...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED IN
NORTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING.

...NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED IN NEW YORK AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S...MLCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG DESPITE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES.  NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-35
KNOTS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MULTICELLULAR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.  GIVEN LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AROUND 20 KNOTS AND DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...A DAMAGING
WIND MCS IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...CLOUD COVER IS HOLDING DOWN
TEMPERATURES AND LIMITING INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA INTO MICHIGAN...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE
OF MORNING CONVECTION. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 3000
J/KG WITH LITTLE MLCIN BY 2100 UTC.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND THIS TIME AND SHOULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS
GIVEN 30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL FLOW.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40
KNOTS...A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD FORM. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...AROUND 6.0
K/KM...SO WIND DAMAGE IS THE MAIN THREAT.

FROM WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER
AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 25 KNOTS IS STILL FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY  DEVELOPED IN
NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THESE SHOULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THIS EVENING.

...UTAH/WYOMING/COLORADO...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO FORCE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  STRONG FLOW AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 600 MB WILL
HELP ENHANCE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY DOWNBURSTS
THAT OCCUR IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

..AFWA.. 08/01/2006