[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241623
SWODY1
SPC AC 241621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT MON APR 24 2006

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX ACROSS MUCH OF
OK/KS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF KS/OK...

...KS/OK...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...WITH BAND OF 40-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM INTO WESTERN KS.  THESE WIND FIELDS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
KS/OK...ALONG WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
KS...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG DRYLINE INTO ACROSS WESTERN OK. 
SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE.

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LYING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NORTHERN OK.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT BACKED FLOW NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS ALSO HINT AT SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST OK ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
THIS WILL TEND TO BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE
ACROSS WESTERN OK AS WELL.  INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL YIELD LOCAL EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OVER 200 M2/S2
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS ACROSS THIS REGION. 
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE THROUGH THE 60S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG.

EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY NEAR SURFACE LOW/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD ALONG DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
LIKELY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.  AT THIS TIME...GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO
BE IN VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OK.  FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY
TEND TO FOCUS STORMS INTO SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
SOUTHEAST KS.

...TX...
STRONG HEATING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL FORCING
SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND MAY WEAKEN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

..HART/GUYER.. 04/24/2006